Data and outside observers say North Carolina is critical in Donald Trump’s effort to return to the White House.
So did Sen. J.D. Vance, Trump’s vice presidential candidate.
“It’s very hard for us to win unless we’re able to get North Carolina,” Vance told reporters on Sept. 14 during a visit to Greenville. The state has 16 votes in the Electoral College. A candidate needs 270 to win.
In 2020, Trump’s victory in North Carolina was tight, just 74,483 votes out of more than 5.5 million cast.
“NC was the bluest red state in the country in 2020, which means it’s the definition of purple as we look towards 2024,” political scientist Chris Cooper of Western Carolina University said in 2023.
In Fayetteville on Friday, Trump took questions from voters. He came to an area of the state that has been friendly to him. Where does Cumberland County fit in the equation?
Fayetteville region important to the campaigns
Trump won in North Carolina both in 2016 and 2020. The numbers from 2020 suggest the Fayetteville region is important to his effort to try to win the state for a third time. They also indicate the region is important to Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris as she tries to wrest North Carolina away from the Republicans for the first time since Barack Obama won the presidential race here in 2008.
In Cumberland County in 2020, Democrat Joe Biden beat Trump in the presidential race: 84,469 votes to 60,032 votes.
But Trump’s visit to the Crown Arena in Fayetteville on Friday wasn’t just a visit to Democrat-favoring Cumberland County. It’s a visit to Cumberland County plus the surrounding areas. Most of the surrounding counties supported Donald Trump in 2020.
The cluster of counties around Fayetteville — Cumberland, Hoke, Moore, Harnett, Sampson, Bladen and Robeson — overall picked Trump over Biden in 2020, with 196,319 votes for Trump and 176,457 votes for Biden. Trump led the region by almost 20,000 votes.
A path to victory through North Carolina?
Political analysts often look at presidential candidates’ potential path to victory via the winner-takes-all practice that most states use to award their Electoral College votes.
Echoing Vance’s statement about North Carolina, political probability analyst Nate Silver recently said (as cited by political analyst Matt Robison in Newsweek), Harris has a 95% chance of winning the whole election if she wins the Tar Heel state.
The polling between Harris and Trump in North Carolina has been close, with Real Clear Politics having Trump ahead by just 0.5% in an average of recent polling.
As a result, both Harris and Trump have been campaigning in North Carolina, as analysts say Trump can’t afford to lose here. Biden was able to win nationally in 2020 without North Carolina, as he had a base of Democrat-favoring states elsewhere.
Harris campaigned in Fayetteville in July, a few days before Biden dropped out and backed her for the Democratic nomination.
Trump visited Fayetteville in the 2016 and 2020 races, and was here again on Oct. 4.
What do the parties say?
Here is what the Republicans and Democrats have to say about Trump’s town hall held Oct. 4.
Communications Director Matt Mercer of the N.C. Republican Party: “We’re thrilled to have President Trump in Fayetteville and in this town hall format, it will be an exciting night. President Trump will take questions from voters about their concerns, particularly those in communities directly impacted by the failures of the Harris-Biden administration.
“As young military families deal with the reality that the world is less safe that it was four years ago and struggle due to Kamala Harris’ poor economic record, President Trump will talk about his common sense platform and how he will lower prices, restore American manufacturing, and bring back peace through strength.”
Rapid Response Director Michael Zhadanovsky of the N.C. Democratic Coordinated Campaign: “Every time Donald Trump comes to North Carolina it’s a reminder to voters that Trump and his MAGA allies like Mark Robinson are too extreme for North Carolina. [Robinson is the lieutenant governor and the Republican nominee for governor.]
“Trump’s Project 2025 agenda would raise taxes on middle class families by almost $4,000 and gut veterans benefits while giving handouts to the rich. It’s time to turn the page on Trump’s extremism and elect Vice President Harris to lower costs for North Carolinians, protect our fundamental freedoms, and keep our communities safe.”

(Photo: Official portrait of former President Donald J. Trump published Oct. 6, 2017. Photo by Shealah Craighead / Library of Congress)