The name of Gov. Roy Cooper came up among a handful of state governors as a replacement on the Democratic ticket if President Joe Biden decided not to run, according reports in recent weeks. That situation is no longer hypothetical, in light of Biden’s announcement on July 21 that he would end his re-election efforts.
Carolina Public Press interviewed analysts in early July to understand the likelihood of Gov. Cooper being selected if the president dropped out, and what the succession process for state governor would look like if Cooper were to run a national campaign.
Gov. Cooper was among at least a dozen state governors who joined a meeting with Biden in the days immediately following the debate, amid criticism of the president’s performance.
With Biden stepping out of the race, many experts predicted Vice President Kamala Harris would likely be the party’s pick for a presidential candidate. That was furthered on July 21 as Biden endorsed and many top Democrats nationally voiced support for her to seek the presidency.
Political analysists in North Carolina and nationally have been saying Gov. Cooper stood a high chance of making the shortlist for the party’s vice presidential if Biden stepped down, as he has now done.
“Cooper is a purple-state Democratic governor who, as a matter of fact, in the last election was the only one who was a Democratic governor who won on the same ballot as Trump,” said Christopher Cooper, a professor of political science and public affairs at Western Carolina University.
“He is a bit of a unicorn in American politics and it makes sense that you’d want the unicorn on your side.”
Cooper has also served as an attorney general and has crossed over with Harris, who also served as an attorney general in California during the same time, according to the professor. They have appeared at several campaign events together, including one in Fayetteville on July 18.
Would NC governor be picked for VP?
North Carolina is widely considered a battleground state, but the Democrats have trailed in recently polling and haven’t won a presidential contest here since Barrack Obama eked out a win in 2008.
During the same period, Cooper has repeatedly won statewide contests for governor and attorney general, the only Democrat with that kind of track record in North Carolina.
Other state governors’ names have also been floated as potential replacements on the Democratic ticket in the event that Biden decided to step out of the race. Some of the others being considered were Gretchen Whitmer from Michigan, Gavin Newsom from California, Josh Shapiro from Pennsylvania, Tim Walz from Minnesota and Andy Beshear from Kentucky.
Beshear recently said he would want to finish his second term as governor.
Newsome wouldn’t make much sense for Democrats to double down on California, according to Cooper, the WCU professor. For Beshear to run, Kentucky would need a new governor and “the odds are very good that the Democratic Party would be sacrificing that,” while Gov. Cooper is finishing his last term in North Carolina.
“In terms of the electoral map, Cooper makes more sense,” the professor said. “Whitmer could also make sense as a candidate.”
“But if Biden were to pull out Roy Cooper would almost have to be on that shortlist,” he said.
Steve Greene, a political science professor at North Carolina State University, also said there is a high possibility that Gov. Roy Cooper would be picked to run on the Democratic ticket.
Gov. Cooper’s demographic appeal would balance out the Democratic ticket if Biden were to step out of the race, both Christopher Cooper and Greene said in early July.
“Kamala Harris is a Black woman and because of his presentation, (Gov.) Cooper is a moderate, white Southerner who would send a message that this is not some radical left ticket,” Greene said. “I don’t think Democrats want to take any more chances with anything and demographically Harris is at the top of the ticket.”
“Everything about these candidates is not only vetted, but at least considered, and the demographics here matter,” Christopher Cooper said. “But I don’t think it’s as simple as Roy Cooper picking up Biden voters as much as it is, that that package of Harris and Cooper together picks up most constituencies in the Democratic Party.”
What happens if Cooper joins ticket?
If for any reason, Gov. Cooper had to step down to focus on a national campaign, North Carolina would need a new governor to lead the state until the general election.
If so, the baton would then be passed down to the lieutenant governor, Mark Robinson, to serve for the remainder of the term until a new governor is elected, according to the state Constitution.
But analysts say it is very unlikely that Gov. Cooper would even need to step down to run a national campaign, according to analysts CPP interviewed.
But if for whatever reason, Cooper did step down from his role as governor, based on the state Constitution, Robinson would become the governor, according to Robert Joyce, a professor of public law and government at the UNC School of Government.
Since Robinson is also running to replace Cooper, this scenario would allow the Republican to run as an incumbent, usually a significant advantage. Given the partisan rivalry between Cooper and the Robinson camp, and Cooper’s support for Democratic state Attorney General Josh Stein‘s candidacy for governor, Cooper would not be likely to let that happen.
Gov. Cooper’s term as governor will end on Jan. 1, 2025. If he were to run and be elected to the federal office, his term as vice president would begin Jan. 20, 2025, according to Joyce. If Cooper joined the ticket and finished his term without stepping down, then the November winner in the gubernatorial race would become governor, Joyce said.
“The idea that Gov. Cooper would step down and it would go to the lieutenant governor, there’s no way he would let that happen,” Greene said. “I’m not aware of anything that would say he has to step down if he’s running for national office.”
“There’s no way Democrats would be willing to take the chance of him stepping down and then letting Mark Robinson be in charge,” he added, “I mean the Republican legislature, I would imagine, would just take the opportunity.”
Christopher Cooper also said there’s no way the governor would let such a situation happen.
“If he runs, he would run from his perch as governor,” Cooper said, “and we’ve seen that – Bill Clinton didn’t step down as governor to run for president, Barack Obama didn’t step down from the Senate to run for president.”