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Ticket-splitters could prove decisive in North Carolina

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Tuesday, 11 June 2024

Written by John Hood

Donald Trump will likely win North Carolina’s 16 electoral votes this year. Our state is a political battleground, no question about it, but in presidential races the Democratic Party always runs a bit uphill here.
In gubernatorial races, the topography looks different. The Democratic nominee this year, Attorney General Josh Stein, could certainly defeat Republican Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson even if the state goes red for president. That wouldn’t just be unsurprising. It would be normal.
Since the turn of the 20th century, North Carolinians have elected just three Republican governors: Jim Holshouser in 1972, Jim Martin in 1984 and 1988, and Pat McCrory in 2012. That is to say, voters have routinely picked GOP candidates for president, Congress, and other offices while putting Democrats in the governor’s office.
To be more precise, some voters have split their tickets. Not too long ago, such voters constituted as much as a fifth of the state’s electorate. As recently as 2004, Republican George W. Bush won 56% of the vote here. That same year, Democratic Gov. Mike Easley was reelected with the same percentage.
Since then, though, the ranks of ticket-splitters have shrunk markedly, as Catawba College political scientist Michael Bitzer pointed at OldNorthStatePolitics.com, a group blog he shares with other professors. “The dynamics of nationalization of American politics has a real impact on North Carolina’s voting patterns,” he wrote, “and is evident in the 2012 and subsequent elections: meaning, the ‘difference’ between a county’s vote for GOP presidential and gubernatorial candidates decreased — thus voters were picking one party for both slots, and not splitting their tickets.”
In 2004, Bitzer found, the share of the vote Bush won in a county was, on average, 89% predictive of how the GOP gubernatorial candidate, Patrick Ballentine, performed in that county. By 2020, the presidential and gubernatorial outcomes were 99% aligned.
Today, only a few North Carolina voters seem willing to vote Republican for president and Democrat for governor. In our closely divided state, however, that’s sufficient. In 2020, Trump won 49.9% of the vote, edging out Joe Biden’s 48.6%. At the same time, Gov. Roy Cooper won reelection with 51.5% to Republican Dan Forest’s 47%. A swing of just three percentage points proved decisive.
Trump seems poised to do much better here than he did four years ago (or, more to the point, Biden is stumbling into a much-worse performance). In polling averages, the former president leads by five to six points. Meanwhile, Stein and Robinson are running neck-and-neck.
Consider the latest Carolina Journal Poll, conducted roughly a month ago. It showed Trump leading Biden by five points, 43% to 38%, while the gubernatorial nominees were tied at 39% each.
These results fit the larger pattern — if you focus only on the spreads. It’s worth noting, however, that these figures are rather low. Are 9% of likely North Carolina voters really undecided in the presidential race, or planning to vote for Robert Kennedy? And what happens when the Stein and Robinson campaigns begin telling low-information voters about their candidates and their opponents? There’s a fair amount of “play” left these numbers, it seems to me.
Still, as the 2024 election cycle heats up, I don’t expect a fifth or even a tenth of North Carolinians to rediscover the virtues of split-ticket voting. Parties are more cohesive than they were in the 1980s or even the 2000s — despite what you may read in fundraising letters or see on cable news. When push comes to shove, the vast majority of Democrats will come home to their party’s nominees. So will the vast majority of Republicans.
I would argue that Josh Stein is the most left-leaning nominee for governor in our state’s history — and Mark Robinson is probably the most controversial. How many soft Democrats or centrist independents who voted for Cooper four years ago will opt for Robinson this year? How many soft Republicans or centrist independents will go Trump-Stein?
Not many. But, quite possibly, enough.

Editor’s Note: John Hood is a John Locke Foundation board member. His latest books, Mountain Folk and Forest Folk, combine epic fantasy with early American history (FolkloreCycle.com).

What I Believe as a Woman, Mother, American

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Tuesday, 11 June 2024

Written by Laura Mussler

Laura Mussler had something to say and she has said it!
For this, I admire her and all our readers who take the time and courage to voice their views, opinions, and concerns about our community, state, and nation in our community newspaper's open free press forum. Safely voicing views of this nature on social media networks is "like winking in the dark." You know you are doing it, but no one else does.
Having free speech and the availability of the free press are just two of the many freedoms that we enjoy as Americans and define us as a Nation. I applaud Ms. Mussler and other bold Fayetteville residents like Craig Stewart, Ron Brewington, and Greg Adair for putting themselves out there with their opinions, and letting citizens and government officials know they are not living and working in a vacuum. I invite all our readers to take an active and impactful role in exercising your rights to free speech. Use this free community newspaper as your platform to express yourself. You write it, you own it, we'll print it! This invitation pertains to ALL our readers: Black, White, Asian, Hispanic, LGBTQIA+, Libertarian, Independent, Democrat or Republican. This commitment has defined the success of Up & Coming Weekly community newspaper for over twenty-eight years. Thank you for reading.
— Bill Bowman, Publisher
P.S. BTW: Always keep in mind that you could be arrested, fined, jailed, or executed for reading this newspaper in China and Russia. Just sayin'!
Laura is a Fayetteville resident, businesswoman, entrepreneur, motorcycle enthusiast, and 1st Vice President of the Fayetteville Republican Women's Club.

I am a voter who casts her ballot in the spirit of principle and value. The values I'm voting on are the freedoms and rights of the nation I love and cherish. My vote represents my vision of America: one that values and has respect for all her people.
This land is ours! It is a birthplace of children of all races, where everyone can praise their heritage and make their dreams come true. Fayetteville and Cumberland County is a melting pot, due to the military community at Fort Liberty. We need to encourage equality and fight against all forms of prejudice, bigotry, racism, sexism, antisemitism, and religious intolerance. To achieve this, we must strive towards maintaining a society where every person feels valued and respected. The commitment to equality is an American ideal.
I believe in parents' rights. Parents know their children best and should be the authority, not the government, to decide where and how they grow up, who they go to school with, and who they learn their moral convictions from. Parental guidance gives children a healthy sense of identity and clarity in their moral world. Only parents can care for their children's hearts and minds appropriately and effectively.
I'm in favor of Title IX. As I watch my granddaughter grow up, I want her to have the opportunity to earn scholarships in sports and not risk her safety by competing against biological boys who are bigger, faster, and stronger.
We need to make sure our daughters, granddaughters, and sisters compete fairly against their female-bodied peers. This principle is crucial in the Fayetteville community, where we take pride in our school sports teams and local competitions.
I believe we have the right to own a gun, even though I tragically lost my son to gun violence here in Cumberland County. This isn't just a policy to me; it's a deeply personal belief. I understand the importance of the right to protect ourselves, our homes, and our loved ones. I stand firmly for the Second Amendment of the U.S. Constitution, which states that we have the right to bear arms. It's a fundamental liberty granted to us by our Founding Fathers.
One of our city council members tried to make Fayetteville a sanctuary city earlier this year. Is that where we want your precious tax dollars going? We must ensure that our community remains safe and our laws are respected. Supporting secure borders is crucial to maintaining the integrity and safety of our community and nation.
Let's be clear: immigrants are welcome if they enter the country legally. You wouldn't allow a stranger to wander into your home without knowing who they are, where they came from, or why they are there. Why should our country's borders be any different?
Here in Fayetteville, we must prioritize the safety of our children and the security of our neighborhoods. Our police and school resource officers play a critical role in maintaining order and ensuring our streets and schools are safe. The city of Fayetteville is short over 80 police officers, and now the Cumberland County Sheriff's Department wants to stop providing crossing guards and school resource officers. This is unacceptable. Without adequate staffing, we risk compromising the well-being of our community. I stand firmly with our law enforcement and will always advocate for the resources and support they need to protect and serve us effectively.
I am voting to defend our sacred right to free speech. Free speech is essential to a healthy democracy. It fosters transparency and the exchange of ideas, facilitating innovation and growth.
It's okay to disagree! It's okay not to want to learn about another person's point of view. However, we need to continue allowing access to different points of view, especially the dissenting ones. We need an open dialog empowering citizens to make informed decisions and push back against tyranny.
I vote to provide our military and veterans with the best training and medical care. We're so blessed to have these men and women protecting us, and we must do the best for them in return for their service. We need to continue supporting our active military and veterans and never forget their willingness to sacrifice on our behalf.
Voting is an act of conviction and a testament to our belief in America's values and all she offers in freedom, equality, and security. All those values that define America and the American Dream. This is why I am a conservative and why I'm casting my vote for Republican Party nominees.
They align with who I am and what I believe in. They believe in the United States of America, which I want my children and grandchildren to live in.

An American like any other

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Tuesday, 11 June 2024

Written by Margaret Dickson

My late husband, John Dickson, began his legal career as an assistant district attorney for Cumberland County and completed it as a District Court Judge, often dealing with issues of juvenile and family law. His prosecutorial work included handling cases ranging from low-level misdemeanors in Hoke County, then part of the 12th Judicial District, to death penalty cases in Cumberland. On more than one occasion, he stoically witnessed the executions of men he and his team had convicted of heinous murders, saying he had an obligation to “finish what he started.”
I tell you this because for nearly 4 decades, John was immersed in the criminal justice system, and by extension, so were the other 4 members of our little family. It was an ongoing education for all of us on the workings of the American system of justice. We saw firsthand that American criminal laws apply to all of us, regardless of age, color, sex, position in the world, or last name.
All Americans have just undergone an unprecedented and, for some, an unwelcome education with the first prosecution and conviction of an American President, now branded for life with 34 felony convictions. A former President, revered by some and reviled by others, was charged with criminal offenses, prosecuted by a state, defended by attorneys of his choosing, convicted by 12 of his fellow Americans, and will be sentenced next month for his crimes. In this, he has been treated just like millions of criminal defendants before him and millions more to come.
Historians tell us the Founding Fathers gave Presidents strong powers and responsibilities so that they could not shift blame to others when things went wrong. They explicitly did not, however, give Presidents immunity from their actions and behaviors, including criminal ones.
From the outset of our nation, Presidents were viewed as special Americans, but not above their fellow citizens. While some newly minted Americans proposed calling George Washington “Your Majesty” or “Excellency,” even though they had just been freed from the yoke monarchy, our first President refused and decided on a simple, “Mr. President,” which is still used today. Thomas Jefferson, our third President preferred the plain, “Mr. Jefferson.”
Over more than 2 centuries, there have been occasional Presidential attempts at grandeur—think Richard Nixon’s fancy guard uniforms apparently inspired by a trip to Europe and so ridiculed that they were put into mothballs and never seen again. Most of our Presidents have, though, been far less pretentious. Dwight Eisenhower and Jimmy Carter, both raised in rural settings, liked to cook simple meals for their families in the kitchen of the White House family quarters.
More than a few have attempted overreach in Presidential powers—think Franklin Roosevelt’s unsuccessful attempt to add members favorable to him to the US Supreme Court, but never have past Presidents used the word “dictator” to apply to themselves or asserted legal immunity for criminal offenses.
What is happening in our nation today flies in the face of what the Dickson family experienced and learned in Fayetteville in the 1980s and 90s—that Americans in all our diversity, are the same when in the eyes of the law.
That means you.
It means me.
And it means Donald J. Trump.

There is a free lunch

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Tuesday, 04 June 2024

Written by Pitt Dickey

William Wordsworth was wrong. Need some intimations of mortality? UNC Chapel Hill provides its graduates with an interesting reminder. Carolina designated me as an official member of the Old Students Club. Until invited, I had no idea such a fine group existed. The UNC class of 1974 was offered a free lunch to new members.
An earlier fellow classmate, James Love, UNC class of 1884, left a pile of money to provide an annual free lunch to all graduates of UNC who reached the 50th anniversary of their graduation who were still alive. I qualified on both accounts, so I got a free meal.
Parking was in a large garage next to the Alumni Center. UNC thoughtfully supplied cheerful student ambassadors every few yards so the doddering members of the Class of '74 would not get lost on their way to lunch. The ambassadors were trained to identify free-range alumni by our graying visages and confused expressions. I mentioned that I thought the name "Old Students Club" was a bit ageist, but was assured it just meant we were cute.
At the lunch, a speaker explained the original name of the group was "The Ancient Patriarchs," because back in the 19th Century only men could attend UNC. The name morphed into Old Students Club when ladies of the female persuasion were allowed to enroll at UNC. At the dining hall, we were told the name had been changed once again to "UNC Alumni Precious Gems."
Not sure if the new name is accurate. They gave me a lapel pin to prove I was a Precious Gem. I remain unconvinced of being a Precious Gem; however, it is possible I might be a Semi Precious Gem.
At my age when I am invited to a free meal it is usually from a company that either wants to sell cemetery plots, timeshares in North Dakota, variable rate annuities, term life insurance, or a spot in a senior citizens' residential home that has Happy Hours on Friday afternoon at 4 p.m.
I skip those free meals. However, since it was UNC that invited me, I decided to go to see what they were offering to age-enhanced alumni.
Considering our class's advanced age, lunch was scheduled for 11:30 a.m. This was done so the alums could make it back home without driving in the dark. The timing also meant we would not miss the 4:30 p.m. Early Bird Special supper at the Country Kitchen Buffet.
I speculated as to what UNC's hook baited with a free lunch might be. My initial guess was a speaker explaining how to include UNC in our estate plan. Or darker, a speaker from the Medical School on how to donate our bodies for anatomical study by Med students. Imagine my surprise when there was no pitch to give UNC either our money or our cold dead bodies. In fact, it was just a dandy free lunch with a talk about our fast times at UNC in the early '70s. It was celestial.
The entertainment was a student choral performance by the female singing group The Loreleis. Their name was a bit spooky considering the age of the attendees. The Lorelei was a legendary German beauty who drowned herself in the Rhine River over love gone wrong. After dying, she came back as a beautiful Siren whose singing lured sailors to their deaths. Being calendar-enhanced, our group might be endangered by their singing. Their first song, "Dust in the Wind" did not ease my concern. The Med School might get us yet. Ponder these lyrics: "Dust in the wind/ All they are is dust in the wind/ Just a drop of water in an endless sea/ All we do/ Crumbles to the ground, though we refuse to see/ Now don't hang on/ Nothing lasts forever but the earth and sky/ It slips away/ And all your money won't another minute buy/ All we are is dust in the wind." Cheery song.
Their performance was excellent. Minor quibble: The Loreleis beating us over our greying heads reminding us we had one foot on the banana peel between here and eternity was problematic. I wondered if the Loreleis next appearance singing Dust in the Wind was at the ICU or the Emergency Room at Memorial Hospital.
Lunch ended on a spectacular upbeat note with the crowd of several hundred seventy-plus-year-old UNC grads singing a rousing chorus of "Hark the Sound" which ends with the immortal words: "I'm a Tar Heel born/ I'm a Tar Heel bred/ And when I die/ I'm a Tar Heel Dead/ GO TO HELL DOOK!" It was a transcendent moment. I hope to be around for many more Precious Gem lunches. Thanks for everything, UNC